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FSIN Food Security Information Network 2019 Global Report on Food Crises JOINT ANALYSIS FOR BETTER DECISIONS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This third annual Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC 2019) marks another major collaborative effort between numerous agencies in the international humanitarian and development community to share their data, analysis, knowledge and expertise regarding people facing food crises. Producing this report is a complex and iterative process, which is coordinated by the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) but would not have been possible without the dedication and contributions of numerous agencies and individuals. The report’s authors would like to thank the senior advisers for their guidance and recommendations during the technical consultations in October 2018 and February 2019, as well as their extensive feedback on the report drafts: Mahalmoudou Hamadoun from the Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS); Philippe Thomas and Giampiero Muci from the International Cooperation and Development (DEVCO) of the European Commission; Tiziana Buffagni from the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) of the European Commission; Dominique Burgeon and Luca Russo from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Laura Glaeser and Chris Hillbruner from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET); Bruno Minjauw from the Global Food Security Cluster (gFSC); Josephine Ippe from the Global Nutrition Cluster (gNC); Rob Vos from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Eshete Dejen from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); José Lopez from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Group (IPC) – Global Support Unit; Andreas Schuetz from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA); Domingos Gove from the Southern African Development Community (SADC); ii GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 Ricardo Sibrian from the Central American Integration System (SICA); Lev Turner from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID); Diane Holland from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF); and Arif Husain and Yvonne Forsen from the World Food Programme (WFP). Special thanks go to the members of the core team from the FSIN secretariat as well as from CILSS, FAO, FEWS NET, GIEWS, gNC, gFSC, EC-JRC, IFPRI, IPC Global Support Unit, WFP and UNICEF, who analyzed the data and drafted the report. These included: Alessandro Constantino, Anna Ziolkovska, Anne-Claire Mouilliez (FSIN coordinator), Anne-Claire Thomas, Aurélien Mellin, Darana Souza, Estefania Custudio, Francois Kayitakire, Giacomo Laracca, Gwenaelle Garnier, Issoufou Baoua, Jonathan Pound, Katy Williams, Katy Huang, Lavinia Antonaci, Louise Mwirigi, Mario Zappacosta, Nicholas Minot, Nora Hobbs, Nusha Choudhury, Panduleni Elago, Paul Nforneh Ambe, Peter Thomas, Sophie Chotard and Valentina Giorda. We would also like to thank Eleonora Ponti and Lynn Clark for the graphic design and Mattia Pinzone for producing the maps. We are grateful to the regional, national and country advisers, experts and working groups who shared their data, provided valuable insights and conducted the analyses presented in this report. We would like to thank the representatives of the donor community who shared their information needs and provided thoughtful views and feedback as end-users. Finally, we greatly appreciate the European Union and USAID for their financial contribution to the FSIN. FSIN Food Security Information Network FOREWORD This year’s Global Report on Food Crises highlights the plight of millions of people who must fight every day against acute hunger and malnutrition. The report also points the way towards solutions that can rebuild lives and livelihoods in communities around the world. Climate-induced disasters, economic crises and, above all, armed conflict, continued to drive hunger rates and food insecurity in 2018. Last May, the United Nations Security Council condemned the use of starvation as a weapon of war. Determined action is needed to uphold this pledge. In this spirit, I welcome your efforts to focus on food and agriculture in times of crisis. Let us all commit to building societies without hunger – and a world at peace. António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 iii acronyms ‘‘I can describe the horrors of what it was like to live under siege… but to describe how it feels to be hungry? On day one it is bad, and on day two you start to think, ‘what can I do about this?‘ Beyond that I will not say.” Syrian refugee iv GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 CONTENTS Acknowledgments…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. ii Foreword…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….iii Key findings……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1 Chapter 1: Introduction and methods……………………………………………………………………………………………………….4 Why this report?…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5 Structure of the report……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6 Geographical coverage: Selection of countries for the GRFC 2019…………………………………… 6 Analysis of acute food insecurity……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 Analysis of malnutrition……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….10 Limitations……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………12 Chapter 2: Analysis of food crises in 2018………………………………………………………………………………………… 14 Key findings of 2018 and 2016–2018 comparisons…………………………………………………………………….15 Main drivers of food insecurity in 2018………………………………………………………………………………………………20 Population displacement trends……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..28 Addressing the needs of those on the cusp of Crisis………………………………………………………………..29 Overview of malnutrition in food crises in 2018……………………………………………………………………………32 Chapter 3: Main food crises in 2018……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 36 Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………38 Bangladesh: Cox’s Bazar……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..42 Burundi…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..46 Central African Republic……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..50 Central America Dry Corridor…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..54 GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 v contents Democratic Republic of the Congo………………………………………………………………………………………………………58 Djibouti………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….62 Eswatini………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….66 Ethiopia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….70 Haiti………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….74 Iraq……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………78 Kenya………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………82 Lake Chad Basin……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….88 Madagascar: southern and south-eastern districts…………………………………………………………………. 100 Malawi………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 104 Mozambique………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 108 Pakistan: Sindh province drought affected areas…………………………………………………………………….. 112 Palestine……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 116 Somalia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 120 South Sudan……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 126 Sudan………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 132 Syrian Arab Republic…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 136 Uganda………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 142 Ukraine: Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts…………………………………………………………………………………………… 146 Yemen………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 150 Zambia……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 154 Zimbabwe………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 158 Chapter 4: Food security and nutrition forecast for 2019 ……………………………………………………. 162 The main drivers and risks for 2019…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 163 Acute food insecurity forecast for 2019…………………………………………………………………………………………. 165 Acronyms………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 178 Annexes…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 180 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 188 vi GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 © WFP/GIULIO D’ADAMO KEY FINDINGS GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 1 key findings ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY GLOBAL ESTIMATES IN 2018 More than 113 million people across 53 countries experienced acute hunger requiring urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in 2018. The worst food crises in 2018, in order of severity, were: Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, the Syrian Arab Republic, the Sudan, South Sudan and north Nigeria. These eight countries accounted for two thirds of the total number of people facing acute food insecurity – amounting to nearly 72 million people. Countries in Africa remained disproportionally affected by food insecurity The figure of 113 million people represents a slight improvement over the number for 2017 presented in last year’s report, in which an estimated 124 million people in 51 countries faced acute hunger. Despite the slight decrease, over the past three years, the report has consistently shown that, year on year, more than 100 million people (2016, 2017 and 2018) have faced periods of acute hunger. The modest decrease between 2017 and 2018 is largely attributed to changes in climate shocks. A number of highly exposed countries did not experience the intensity of climate-related shocks and stressors that they had experienced in 2017 when they variously faced severe drought, flooding, erratic rains and temperature rises brought on by the El Niño of 2015-16. These include countries in southern and eastern Africa, the Horn of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the AsiaPacific region. 2 GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 An additional 143 million people in a subset of 42 countries were found to be living in Stressed conditions on the cusp of acute hunger (IPC/CH Phase 2). They risked slipping into Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) if faced with a shock or stressor. High levels of acute and chronic malnutrition in children living in emergency conditions remained of grave concern. The immediate drivers of undernutrition include poor dietary intake and disease. Mothers and caregivers often face challenges in providing children with the key micronutrients they need at critical growth periods in food crises. This is reflected in the dismally low number of children consuming a minimum acceptable diet in most of the countries profiled in this report. Primary drivers Conflict and insecurity, climate shocks and economic turbulence – the main drivers of food insecurity – continued to erode livelihoods and destroy lives. Conflict and insecurity remained the key driver in 2018. Some 74 million people – two thirds of those facing acute hunger – were located in 21 countries and territories affected by conflict or insecurity. Around 33 million of these people were in 10 countries in Africa; over 27 million were in seven countries and territories in West Asia/Middle East; 13 million were in three countries in South/South-east Asia and 1.1 million in Eastern Europe. Climate and natural disasters pushed another 29 million people into situations of acute food insecurity in 2018. As in previous years, most of these individuals were in Africa, where nearly 23 million people in 20 countries were acutely food insecure primarily due to climate shocks. Economic shocks were the primary driver of acute food insecurity for 10.2 million people, mainly in Burundi, the Sudan and Zimbabwe. key findings Food insecurity: short-term outlook for 2019 Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, the Syrian Arab Republic, the Sudan, South Sudan and north Nigeria are expected to remain among the world’s most severe food crises in 2019. Large segments of populations in most of these countries risk falling into Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity. Climate shocks and conflict will continue driving food insecurity and are expected once again to severely affect several regions. Dry weather in parts of southern Africa and drought in Central America’s Dry Corridor have dampened prospects for agricultural output. El Niño conditions are likely to have an impact on agricultural production and food prices in Latin America and the Caribbean. The needs of refugees and migrants in host countries are expected to remain significant in Bangladesh and the Syrian regional crisis. The number of displaced people, refugees and migrants are expected to increase if the political and economic crisis persists in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of). TWO GLOBAL HUNGER REPORTS This report complements the evidence reported by The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018 (ex SOFI), which identifies 821 million undernourished people. While the SOFI estimate provides the scale of chronic food insecurity worldwide, the Global Report on Food Crises focuses specifically on the most severe manifestations of acute food insecurity in the world’s most pressing food crises. The way forward Ending conflicts, empowering women, nourishing and educating children, improving rural infrastructure and reinforcing social safety-nets are essential for a resilient, stable and hunger-free world. Information and technology can capture changes in food security – especially in fragile countries and contexts – on a near real-time basis. Though this report demonstrates that overall, quality of data has improved, there are countries for which there are data gaps. Collecting and analysing data on vulnerable populations is vital to ensure a situation analysis that identifies not only outcomes, but hunger’s key drivers, for a targeted and integrated response for multiple partners working in development and humanitarian spheres. In the last 10 years, humanitarian assistance and spending needs have grown by around 127 percent – approximately 40 percent of which went to cover needs in the food and agriculture subsectors. The surge in humanitarian needs – as well as the potential for agricultural development and rural resilience-building to provide a buffer against crises – highlights the need for a new way of responding to the food security challenges of this new era. Investments in conflict prevention and sustaining peace will save lives and livelihoods, reduce structural vulnerabilities and address the root causes of hunger. The findings of this report clearly demonstrate the need for simultaneous action across the humanitarian– development nexus to deliver a hunger-free world in the 21st century. GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 3 1. INTRODUCTION AND METHODS 4 GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 © WFP/KAREL PRINSLOO introduction and methods introduction and methods WHY THIS REPORT? For several years the number of people who cannot meet their daily food needs without humanitarian assistance has been rising, primarily driven by two factors: persistent instability in conflict-ridden regions and adverse climate events.1 These growing needs have been reflected in the increasing level of international humanitarian assistance, which reached US$27.3 billion in 2017, up from US$18.4 billion in 2013.2 While critical to saving lives and alleviating human suffering, humanitarian assistance does not address the root causes of food crises. In response, those coordinating emergency humanitarian assistance are working more seriously with those in development support and conflict prevention to find ways to reverse the current trend in escalating numbers of food-insecure people in need of urgent action. This “new way of working,” aims to address the humanitarian-development (HD) nexus, which emerged from the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016, as well as the Agenda for Humanity’s call3 to “move from delivering aid to ending need,” which provided a framework for thinking about innovative approaches to address food crises more sustainably in line with Sustainable Development Goal 2.1.4 These collaborative efforts to prevent and address food crises are reflected in the UN Security Council’s adoption of resolution 2417 in May 2018. It allows the Council to consider its full range of tools — including sanctions — to ensure that parties to conflict do not violate international humanitarian law (IHL) by, for example, starving civilians as a weapon of war, unlawfully denying humanitarian access to civilian populations in need and depriving people of their means to produce food. This HD nexus is also reflected in the Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC), which seeks to combat food crises from humanitarian and development perspectives and tackle the root causes of these crises (see box). This Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) contributes to humanitarian development 1 2 3 4 FSIN. Global Report on Food Crises 2018; State of food Security and Nutrition in the World (formerly SOFI) Development Initiative 2018. Global humanitarian assistance report 2018 The Agenda for Humanity is a five-point plan that outlines the changes that are needed to alleviate suffering, reduce risk and lessen vulnerability on a global scale. In the Agenda, humanity— people’s safety, dignity and the right to thrive— is placed at the heart of global decision-making. More information at: https:// agendaforhumanity.org/agendaforhumanity SDG2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round. efforts by providing the global and national food security community and GNAFC members with timely, independent and consensus-based information on the severity, magnitude and drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition in food crisis contexts. This information supports humanitarian and development actors to plan and fund evidence-based responses, while using the data to seek high-level political action for durable solutions to food crises. GLOBAL NETWORK AGAINST FOOD CRISES The Global Network Against Food Crises was launched at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit by the European Union, FAO and WFP with the objective of tackling the root causes of food crises through shared analysis and knowledge and strengthened coordination in evidence-based responses across the humanitarian development nexus. The Global Network acknowledges the centrality of food and agri-food systems in preventing food crises and mitigating their impact, boosting recovery and reconstruction. It also acknowledges the need to understand links and coordinate policies and actions in relation to other complex dynamics and drivers of vulnerability, such as conflict and insecurity, climate change and demography. It is a global platform that aims to shape food security and nutrition decision-making by establishing and consolidating partnerships at national, regional and global levels; sharing data and analyses; defining innovative approaches; monitoring progress towards better food security, pursuing evidence-based advocacy and coordination for supporting food and nutrition security in contexts at risk of food crises within a longer perspective of eradicating hunger and malnutrition by 2030. These objectives are achieved via three work streams (i) analysis and information, (ii) strategic programming and (iii) high-level policy uptake, advocacy and coordination. The work stream on analysis is delivered by the Technical Working Group under the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), which produces the annual GRFC, the main information product of the GNAFC. GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 5 introduction and methods STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT For the 2019 edition of the GRFC, 15 agencies in the international humanitarian and development community have joined forces to share their data, analyses, knowledge and expertise regarding food insecurity and malnutrition in countries facing crisis.5 The report is structured as follows: Chapter 1 introduces the rationale of the report, its geographical coverage and describes the methodology. Chapter 2 provides an overview of 2018 food crises. A table of 53 countries and territories with food crises gives the peak 2018 numbers of food-insecure people in need of urgent action as well as the numbers of those in need of longer-term support, such as disaster risk reduction, livelihood protection and resilience-building interventions, to prevent them from becoming affected by most severe forms of acute food insecurity. It identifies the key drivers and factors contributing to food crises throughout the year, making comparisons with past editions. It also provides an overview of the nutritional status of the population in crises. Chapter 3 presents country-by-country analysis of food insecurity and malnutrition for 27 selected crises. Each brief contains a narrative on the magnitude, severity and main drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition, preceded by a one-page graphical summary. Chapter 4 provides an analysis of expected trends in 2019. It identifies which countries are likely to experience improving food security and those where the situation is likely to remain static or deteriorate. It explores the reasons behind the particular food insecurity forecasts, and it estimates the number of people in need of urgent action. GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE Selection of countries for the GRFC 2019 The main table in chapter 2 of the GRFC 2019 provides acute food insecurity data for 53 countries. The following criteria were used to select these countries. Firstly, the GRFC includes the 40 countries that required external assistance for food in 2018 as assessed by FAO Global Information and Early Warning System 5 6 GRFC partners in 2019 edition: CILSS, European Union, global Food Security Cluster, global Nutrition Cluster, IFPRI, IGAD, IPC Global support unit, FAO, FEWS NET, SADC, SICA, OCHA, UNICEF, USAID, WFP GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 (GIEWS). These are countries facing food crises and in need of external food assistance because they have an exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production and supplies or widespread lack of access to food or severe localized food insecurity. Eight countries not in the 2018 GIEWS list are included because they experienced at least one food crisis in the past three years or at least three food crises in the past 10 years. This ensures countries with persistent or protracted crises are captured. Thirty-four countries did not meet these criteria but were affected by natural disasters and/or hosted large numbers of refugees and/or were experiencing conflict and/or political instability and were therefore added. Among these 34 countries, 16 countries were omitted because the shock did not have a major impact on food security or the Government could handle the response without external assistance. A further 13 were excluded because of lack of data, leaving 53 countries to be analysed. See Figure 1. In this report, the shocks identified as primary drivers of acute food insecurity are categorized as follows: Conflict/insecurity: countries facing conflict, insecurity, localized violence or political crisis; Climate shocks and natural disasters: climate-related and natural disasters such as drought/dry spells, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes; Economic shocks: refers to macro or micro-economic shocks such as hyperinflation, economic down turn or significant decrease in purchasing power. Shortlisting countries for further analysis The list of 53 countries or territories facing food crises was distilled down to the 27 with the most severe food and nutrition crises for further analysis in chapter 3, using criteria based on Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and Cadre Harmonisé (CH). They are areas with at least 20 percent of the population or at least 1 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) or with any area in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4). In the absence of IPC or CH analyses, other sources were used. (See section below for description of IPC/ CH classifications and other acute food insecurity data sources). Three countries (the Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen, The Democratic Republic of the Congo) were included because they were on the IASC Humanitarian SystemWide Emergency Response (‘Level 3/L3’ Response) emergencies list.6 An L3 response is activated when 6 These countries were not only IASC L3 emergencies but they also fulfilled the first set of criteria. Figure 1 GRFC 2019 process for selecting countries STEP 1 IDENTIFY THE LONG LIST OF COUNTRIES FOR INCLUSION IN GRFC 2019 205 countries* 18 countries 48 countries + 48 countries that requested external assistance for food and/orfaced shocks as assessed by FAO GIEWS: • in 2018 • at least once in the past three years 66 • at least three years in the past 10 years = countries 18 additional countries that: • hosted displaced populations • faced natural hazards/climate shocks • faced conflict/political crises and insecurity *Source: UN DESA Statistics Division, M49 Standard list of countries or areas. NB. 16 of the 34 countries who met the criteria above were excluded because the shock(s) had little impact on food security and/or their governments requested no external assistance. STEP 2 DETERMINE SHORTLISTS OF COUNTRIES FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS IN GRFC 2019 18 ises in 20 f food cr 2018 a n a ly s i s o population in food-insecure r and share of t numbe Table 5 Highes 98% 11.0 ¹ Burkina Faso ¹³ Burundi ¹ Cabo Verde Cameroon (7 regions) 64% 15.8 96.5 34% 5.9 ¹ Guatemala 65% 1.2 Guinea 37.0 Honduras (Dry Corridor) Kenya Lebanon (Syrian 64% 1.5 refugees) Lesotho 100% 6.6 Liberia Libya Madagascar (southern 18.9 ¹ Malawi Mali 94% 28.8 ¹ Mauritania Mozambique areas) Myanmar (selected 100% 6.0 Nicaragua ¹ Niger 50% 98.6 ¹ Capital Territory) 2.3 and Federal Nigeria (16 states areas) drought-affected Pakistan (Sindh territories of) Palestine (occupied n migrants) Peru (Venezuela 86% 6.6 ¹ Senegal Sierra Leone 93% 10.4 ¹ Somalia ² South Sudan 43.9 100% 20.0 ¹ Sudan 2.2 Syrian Arab Republic Turkey (Syrian refugees) 15% 6.2 AFGH oblasts, and IDP) ANIST AN (Luhansk and Donetsk Uganda Ukraine 39% 6.9 ² Yemen ¹ Zambia N/A N/A 30% 8.9 28% 2.0 17% N/A N/A 20% 1.9 67% 9.3 61% N/A 53% 1.2 13% N/A 18% 15.9 100% 29.9 31% 1.3 3% 1.1 31% 2.5 11% 1.1 100% 40.0 22% 3.2 13.7 33% 0.2 60% 23% 2.7 14% 6.5 26% 1.5 59% 6.2 100% 82% 3.2 22% 6.1 17% 0.2 2% 2.7 89% 12.3 0.8 6% 0.1 11% 0.2 14% 0.8 77% 23% 22.7 34% 0.0 55% 0.3 N/A 24% 5.0 87% 1.7 100% 5.0 12.5 N/A N/A 5% 2.0 1% 27% N/A 4% 5.3 24% 7.8 0% 0.8 94% 20.9 1.0 6% 0.0 18% 3.4 11% 0.8 14% 7.4 ¹ N/A 33% 5.0 5% 1.8 22% 0.7 14% 0.5 88% 4.0 ¹ 15% N/A 22% 0.9 97% 0.6 51% 3.3 79% 15.3 33% 0.5 5% 1.5 12% 3.0 rn)¹ and southeaste 57% 0.9 1% 0.3 N/A N/A 6% 0.0 87% 4.2 ¹ 66% 0.4 19% 0.3 N/A N/A 34% 0.5 100% 1.5 28% 0.8 7% 2.6 100% 46.3 Jordan (Syrian refugees) 35% 2.4 14% 0.1 100% 0.7 Iraq 9% 11% 0.1 19% 2.5 100% 23% 0.9 32% 0.5 30% 2.8 Haiti¹ 2.3 63% 7.0 Guinea-Bissau N/A 21% 1.4 1% 0.0 28% 0.4 1% 0.1 100% 10.0 (Dry Corridor) 28% N/A 14% 0.8 60% 0.3 6% 0.1 83% 40% 0.4 8% 8.1 100% 1.8 Gambia countries 79% 1.1 49% 0.1 23% 0.2 15% 0.1 16% 0.2 22% 1.4 Ethiopia Estimates of acutely food-insecure population were produced for 53 countries. N.B. Estimates were not produced for 13 of the long listed countries because of insufficient data. 20% 0.1 30% 27.4 23% 0.0 21% 3.0 55% 0.1 16% 0.2 ¹ Chapter 2 Overview of food crises in 2018 66% 56.2 Cote d’Ivoire ¹ Dem. Rep. Of Congo Djibouti (rural areas) n migrants) Ecuador (Venezuela Corridor) El Salvador (Dry 0.3 23% 13.1 41% 2.9 0% 0.0 80% 19.8 n migrants) Colombia (Venezuela eSwatini 53 100% 1.1 ¹ Chad N/A 18% 1.8 30% 0.3 20% 2.9 7% 1.0 90% 0.1 43% 1.9 95% 4.4 13.9 ¹ Centr. Afr. Rep. N/A 13% N/A 3% 0.5 30% 2.7 4% 0.0 99% 0.5 N/A 16% 1.7 % of total population analysed 6.8 5% 1.0 97% Number (millions) 87% 1.3 TBD 1.5 20.1 47% 10.6 65% 22.6 ¹ % of total population analysed Number (millions) % Number (millions) s) Afghanistan and host population Bazaar refugee Bangladesh (Cox’s or worse Population in Stressedabove) or (IPC/CH Phase 3 or worse Population in Crisis above) or (IPC/CH Phase 3 Percentage of population analysed out of total population of reference Total population analysed Country Phase 4) in Emergency (IPC/CH (IPC Phase 5) and Haiti, population classified (IPC Phase 1) Republic of Congo Phase 4) and in Catastrophe this country contains population in Minimal , Burundi, Democratic estimates, because of different in Emergency (IPC the estimates of ¹ The estimates for except Afghanistan population classified n (IPC) as it is merged with included in this report, Food Security Phase Classificatio this country contains 2) is not reported for the countries ² The estimates for Integrated in Stressed (IPC Phase food insecurity indicated 2018 was lower than estimate of population food assistance in and severity of acute ³ For Burundi, the general magnitude requiring emergency agreement with the evidence suggest the population All partners are in analyses of available food insecurity for which FEWSNET related to factors contributing to data of n interpretatio Zimbabwe ACUTE FOOD INSECU RITY 2018 10.6 M 6.8M IPC PHASE 2 Chapter 3 Analysis of food crises in 2018 2019 FORECAST The number of people in need of urgent assistance will persist at least until the 2019 harvest. STRESSED DRIVERS OF FOOD INSECURITY AND MALNU The following criteria were used to select 27 crises for in-depth analysis:* TRITION • Widespread drought severely affected 2017/2018 wheat production – estimated at 28 percent below five-year average. • Drought dried up extensive pastureland prompting distressselling of breeding livestock and increased animal deaths. Conflict/insecurity Climate shocks Economic shocks • Violence against aid workers blocked relief from reaching the most vulnerable. • Secure work opportunitie s are very scarce and more than half of the population lives below the national poverty line (2016–2017). • Hundreds of thousands of Afghanis returned from Iran with no assets or livelihoods. • Increased violence, drought and other natural disasters drove massive displacement. MALNUTRITION INDICAT ORS 16% of children aged 6–23 months received ‘Minimum Acceptable Diet’ for growth and development. Poor food access, and lack of health care increased acute malnutrition in droughtaffected Kandhar and Badghis provinces. 41% of children aged 0–59 months stunted (>30% = very high). DHS 2015/16 35% of households lacking access to safe drinking water. 43% of infants (up to 6 months old) exclusively breastfed. National Nutrition Survey, 2013 2M children aged 6–59 months acutely malnourished, 600 000 severely so. HNO, 2019 DISPLACEMENT 38 75 000 Pakistani refugees from North-Waziristan Agency hosted in Khost and Paktika provinces. itio nd malnutr nsecurity a 2019 food i 800 100 undocumented refugees returned from Iran/ Pakistan between January and December 2018. IOM, Dec 2018 343 000 new IDPs as a result of conflict in 2018. UNHCR, Dec 2018 • at least 20% of the population analysed in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above • at least 1 million people in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above • any area in IPC/CH Phase 4 or above • included in the IASC Humanitarian System-Wide Emergency Response – Level 3 2.9M EMERGENCY 25% URBAN UNHCR, Dec 2018 crises The number of food insecure people in need of urgent action increased mainly as a result of severe drought conditions that affected the 2018 harvest. IPC PHASE 3 OR ABOVE 7.7M CRISIS 75% RURAL 27 2017-18 CHANGE 9 RISES 201 N FOOD C REPORT O World Bank, 2017 TOTAL AL 18 G L O B POPULATION 34.7M n forecasts GLOBAL REPOR T ON FOOD CR ISES 2019 of people Map X Number in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above (ranges) and primary drivers and risks in Africa in 2019 SYRIAN REFUGEES, * selection criteria not mutually-exclusive. EGYPT LIBYA SUDAN CHAD NIGER MALI MAURITANIA DJIBOUTI CABO VERDE SENEGAL SOMALIA BURKINA FASO THE GAMBIA GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA CÔTE D’IVOIRE SOUTH SUDAN ETHIOPIA NIGERIA (17 STATES) CAR SIERRA LEONE UGANDA LIBERIA KENYA CAMEROON CONGO DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO BURUNDI TANZANIA MALAWI MOZAMBIQUE ZAMBIA ANGOLA 35 countries Chapter 4 Forecast of food crises in 2019 Some level of information is provided for all 66 countries, plus 2 additional countries flagged by Early Warning. • actual estimates are provided for 35 countries. MADAGASCAR ZIMBABWE of acute Forecast drivers in 2019/20 food insecurity ESWATINI Climate shocks NAMIBIA LESOTHO Economic shocks SOUTH AFRICA Conflict/insecurity Health crises Related displaceme nt of urgent population in need insecure Estimates of food (millions) assistance in 2019 Source: FSIN GRFC 164 March 2019 2019 OD CRISES PORT ON FO GLOBAL RE introduction and methods a humanitarian situation suddenly and significantly changes and when, following an analysis of five criteria – scale, complexity, urgency, capacity and reputational risk—it is clear that the capacity to lead, coordinate and deliver humanitarian assistance and protection on the ground does not match the scale, complexity and urgency of the crisis. Declaration of an L3 response activates a UN system-wide mobilisation of leadership, staffing and funding to enable the accelerated and scaled-up delivery of assistance and protection to people in need. ANALYSIS OF ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY Food insecurity refers to the lack of secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and healthy life. For people to be food secure, food must consistently be available and accessible in sufficient quantities and diversity and households must be able to utilise (store, cook, prepare and share) the food in a way that has a positive nutritional impact. Acute food insecurity is any manifestation of food insecurity found in a specified area at a specific point in time of a severity that threatens lives or livelihoods, or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration. These acute states are highly susceptible to change and can occur and manifest in a population within a short amount of time, as a result of sudden changes or shocks that negatively impact on the determinants of food insecurity and malnutrition.7 Sources for the 2018 peak number of food-insecure people When more than one food insecurity figure exists for 2018, the GRFC presents the highest number — or peak — of food-insecure people who needed urgent action during 2018. This allows for a direct comparison with peak figures from previous years. In countries where the government and food security stakeholders have adopted the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) or the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) as the protocol for classifying the severity and magnitude of acute food insecurity, the number of people in IPC/ CH Phase 3 or above is used to assess the number of food-insecure people in need of urgent assistance. Populations in Crisis (IPC/CH Phase 3), Emergency (IPC/ CH Phase 4) and Catastrophe/Famine (IPC/CH Phase 5) are deemed to be those in need of urgent food, nutrition and livelihood assistance. Populations in Stressed (IPC/ CH Phase 2) require a different set of actions —ideally disaster risk reduction and livelihoods protection interventions — and are also reported in Chapter 2. See Annexes 1 and 2 for more explanation of IPC/CH and phase descriptions. For countries and territories that lack either an IPC/ CH, estimates of the number of people in need of food assistance were primarily derived from IPC-compatible8 analyses carried out by FEWS NET or Vulnerability Assessment Committees (VAC),9 Food Security Cluster (FSC) reports or Humanitarian Needs Overviews10 (HNO) or WFP Food Security Assessments using CARI methodology.11 Sources for the 2019 forecasts of acute food insecurity The sources for the outlook and projected trends for 2019 (presented in chapter 4) vary. They are based on IPC and CH projections, FEWS NET’s projected emergency food assistance needs and other reliable sources (VAC, HNOs, etc). FEWS NET’s food assistance outlook briefs provide information on the projected severity and magnitude (using ranges) of acute food insecurity and indicate each country’s food-insecure population in need of urgent action (IPC Phase 3 or above). FEWS NET projections are based on a scenario development approach, where a set of assumptions regarding the evolution of food security drivers and their impacts on food security outcomes are developed in a most-likely scenario. CH projections were generated in October–November 2018 and forecast the number of people in CH Phase 3 or above for the West African and Sahel lean season in June–August 2019. 8 9 10 11 7 8 IPC, 2017 GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 IPC compatible products are generated using key IPC protocols but are not built on multi-partner technical consensus. The VAC assessment process and methodology is coordinated and backstopped by the SADC Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Vulnerability Assessment Committee. Its methodology draws from a livelihood-based vulnerability assessment framework. HNO: Humanitarian Needs Overviews aim to support the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) in developing a shared understanding of the impact and evolution of a crisis and to inform response planning. The HNO includes an assessment of the food security situation, the impact of the crisis, the breakdown of the people in need and the required funds. The CARI is used to classify individual households according to their level of food insecurity. All five indicators included within the CARI approach can be incorporated within IPC analysis; the IPC Technical Manual provides guidance on where each indicator sits within the IPC Analytical Framework. introduction and methods Table 1 IPC/CH acute food insecurity phase description Phase Technical description Priority response objective 1 Minimal More than four in five households in the area are able to meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance on humanitarian assistance. Resilience building and disaster risk reduction. 2 Stressed Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in detrimental coping strategies. Disaster risk reduction and protection of livelihoods. 3 Crisis Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition OR are marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with accelerated depletion of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps. URGENT ACTION REQUIRED to protect livelihoods, reduce food consumption gaps and reduce acute malnutrition. 4 Emergency Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: large food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition and excess mortality OR extreme loss of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps in the short term. URGENT ACTION REQUIRED to save lives and livelihoods. 5 Famine Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five households in the area has an extreme lack of food and other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evident. URGENT ACTION REQUIRED to prevent widespread death and total collapse of livelihoods. TWO GLOBAL REPORTS ON HUNGER: THE GRFC AND THE SOFI The GRFC focuses on acute food insecurity, mainly based on IPC/CH estimates for food-insecure populations facing Crisis conditions or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above), at the worst (peak) moment in the year, rather than an average condition for the year. These conditions can be highly susceptible to change and can manifest in a population within a short timeframe, as a result of sudden changes or shocks. According to the GRFC 2018, around 124 million people in 51 countries faced Crisis conditions or worse in 2017. Where available, the report highlights the populations in Stressed (IPC/CH Phase 2) for whom disaster risk reduction and protection of livelihoods is needed. There is a major conceptual difference between data used for the GRFC and estimates in the State of Food and Nutrition Security in the World (SOFI), which provides estimates of the Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) and of the Prevalence of Food Insecurity (FI) based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). There are two indicators based on the FIES: the prevalence of food insecurity at moderate and severe levels combined, FImod+sev, and at severe levels only, FIsev (see annex 4). Both measures, PoU and FIsev, identify food insecurity faced by households and individuals on average during a year. As such, they could be said to measure chronic food insufficiency and relate to the nutritional indicator of “chronic undernutrition”. The SOFI 2018 estimated the absolute number of undernourished people at 821 million, and severely food-insecure people at 770 million in 2017. While chronic food insecurity is a long-term or persistent inability to meet food consumption requirements (generally lasting for at least six months of the year) acute or transitory food insecurity is a short-term or temporary inability to meet food consumption requirements related to sporadic crises, indicating a capacity to recover. Acute and chronic food insecurity are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, repeated shocks can provoke ratchets of severe food insecurity, eventually forcing households into destitution and chronic poverty, and potentially leading to starvation. While acute food insecurity may require shorter-term interventions that address immediate causes, interventions tackling root causes may also be important to prevent repeated transitory acute food insecurity, which may lead to chronic food insecurity. The GRFC reports acute food insecurity only for countries experiencing food crises; the SOFI provides the number of food-insecure and undernourished people out of the total population of the world. GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES 2019 9 introduction and methods ANALYSIS OF MALNUTRITION Malnutrition includes undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, overweight and obesity. Undernutrition refers to the outcome of insufficient intake, and/or poor absorption and/or poor biological use of nutrients consumed. It includes being too short for one’s age (stunted), dangerously thin for one’s height (wasted), underweight for one’s age and deficient in vitamins and minerals (micronutrient deficiencies). Acute malnutrition Acute malnutrition occurs when an individual is suffering from inadequate nutrient intake. It is characterized by extreme weight loss, and, in its severe form, can lead to death. The immediate cause of this severe nutritional restriction may be inadequate food intake or a recent bout of illness that hinders appropriate intake and absorption of nutrients. Household food insecurity combined with other factors such as inappropriate childcare practices, limited access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities, may lead to restricted dietary intake and frequent illness. Broader basic contributing factors include social, economic, political and environmental contexts, such as adequate health services.12 10 Table 2 WHO severity index for prevalence of wasting in children aged 6-59 months Previous Label prevalence ranges New prevalence ranges Label – –

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