MGMT316 Decision modelling for managers MGMT316 Assignment 1 Transient 40% of route grade, CLOs 2, 3, 4, 6
Digital Card Transaction Records
A high web-worth foreign individual is taking into consideration introducing a brand new digital cost device in the New Zealand market.
It is the first week of August 2025. The investor is attempting to label the digital funds misfortune in New Zealand. You’d also have not any longer too prolonged ago carried out your BCom at Victoria University, where you studied MGMT 316. You’d also have met the investor at a salvage together and are appealing to provoke alongside with your new knowledge. The investor is furthermore appealing to measurement you up for conceivable employment. So you had been given the connected spreadsheet, sourced from Statistics New Zealand knowledge, giving total digital card transaction knowledge from October 2002 to June 2025, in thousands and thousands of bucks, broken down by credit and debit card sales, and by trade sector (Consumables, Durables, Hospitality, Services and products, Apparel, Motor Autos (other than gasoline) and Non-Retail transactions (other than providers and products).
Part A
Put together a summary file for the investor (one page, plus graphs and tables) explaining your assessment of the reliability of the tips and the patterns you ogle in every of the nine time sequence.
Part B
For your discussions with the investor, you have realized that they are interested by the total capability digital card sales, but especially the replacement of customizing the new providing for the Consumables and Hospitality sectors. The investor has instructed you prepare a forecast for the July total card, consumables and hospitality spending using a four-length transferring common and exponential smoothing (with weights (α) instructed of 0.8 and 0.4). However, you watched this would perchance perchance be a take a look at and that a regression mannequin using seasonal dummies will yield a better forecast, in the end for a number of of the time sequence. Put together one other file providing the forecasts using every arrangement for the Complete, Consumables and Hospitality sectors and point to to the supervisor which you might perchance well perchance perchance perchance recommend, in step with the strengths and weaknesses of every and each arrangement.
Part C
The investor now asks you to prepare a forecast for the three sequence for the following two years (July 2025 to June 2027). Would you trade the manner inclined for the forecast inclined in Part B above for any of the time sequence? If that is the case, why? Calculate the forecasts for the prolonged length and file them in a extra memo to the Investor. How confident are you in the accuracy of those forecasts?
Part D
At closing, the investor asks you to point to the usefulness of ARIMA forecasting for these knowledge. You’d also very smartly be proven the connected plots and correlograms of the Complete digital card knowledge and Consumables knowledge from July 2020, and the first advise 12 length seasonal differences. Provide a temporary explanation of the role of stationarity in time sequence forecasting, the key differences between seasonal regression-based mostly completely and ARIMA forecasting, and whether (in your stare) the extra effort required for ARIMA forecasting of this sequence is liable to be justified by providing a substantially extra correct forecast than supplied in Part C for this sequence. (Expose – you are no longer required to calculate the ARIMA forecasts for this phase– correct talk about the theoretical implications and interpretations from the plots supplied).
MGMT316 Assignment Rubric Part Evaluation substances Marks
Readily available
Memo presentation Introduction Constructing, style and circulation
Clarity and conciseness
Spelling, punctuation, acceptable language and grammar
Figures, graphs and tables
Correct referencing
10
Part A Acceptable graphs chosen and presented Correct identification of phases, trends, seasonality, steps and plenty others
Identification of outliers
Assorted factors
15
Part B Description and justification of chosen forecasting mannequin(s) Correct analytical procedures followed to assemble the forecasts
Dialogue of strengths/obstacles/accuracy of forecasts
Assumptions made particular
30 Part C Correct analytical procedures followed to assemble the forecasts Extreme evaluate of arrangement chosen.
Evaluation of accuracy.
20 Part D Dialogue of stationarity and utility to chosen sequence Extreme comparison of suggestions (theoretical parts)
Extreme comparison of suggestions (case context)
15
Spreadsheet modelling Face validity of models Correctness of formulae
Journey and priceless layout/naming conventions
Explanations/documentation of formulae and calculations conducted for the diagnosis
10
Complete Rating 100
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